DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1913-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85013465855
论文题名: Inter-model comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile basin using ensemble of hydrological models and global climate models
作者: Teklesadik A.D. ; Alemayehu T. ; van Griensven A. ; Kumar R. ; Liersch S. ; Eisner S. ; Tecklenburg J. ; Ewunte S. ; Wang X.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 3 起始页码: 517
结束页码: 532
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Hydrology
; Uncertainty analysis
; Actual evapotranspiration
; Climate change impact
; Global circulation model
; Global climate model
; Hydrological impacts
; Hydrological models
; Mean annual precipitation
; Socio-economic impacts
; Climate change
; annual variation
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; discharge
; ensemble forecasting
; evapotranspiration
; future prospect
; global climate
; hydrological modeling
; hydrology
; Blue Nile Basin
; Nile Basin
英文摘要: The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of future climate change on discharge and evapotranspiration of the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin using multiple global circulation models (GCMs) projections and multiple hydrological models (HMs). The uncertainties of projections originating from HMs, GCMs, and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were also analyzed. This study is part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) initiative (phase 2), which is a community driven modeling effort to assess global socio-economic impacts of climate change. The baseline period of 1981–2010 was used to identify climate change signals in two future periods: mid future (2036–2065) and far future (2070–2099). Our analyses showed that two out of four GCMs indicated a statistically significant increase in projected precipitation in the far future period. The projected change in mean annual precipitation varied between 4 and 10% relative to the baseline period. The HMs did not agree on the direction of climate change impacts on mean annual discharge. Furthermore, simulated changes in mean annual discharge by all HMs, except SWIM which simulated up to 6.6% increase for the far future period, were not statistically significant. All the HMs generally simulated a statistically significant increase in annual mean actual evapotranspiration (AET) in both periods. The HMs simulated changes in AET ranging from 1.9 to 4.4% for the far future period. In the UBN basin GCM structure was the main contributor of uncertainty in mean annual discharge projection followed by HM structure and RCPs, respectively. The results from this research suggest to use multiple impact models as well as multiple GCMs to provide a more robust assessment of climate change impacts in the UBN basin. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84062
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussel, Belgium; UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands; UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Hohai University, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Teklesadik A.D.,Alemayehu T.,van Griensven A.,et al. Inter-model comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change on the Upper Blue Nile basin using ensemble of hydrological models and global climate models[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)