globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1867-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85007500020
论文题名:
Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America
作者: Hannah L.; Donatti C.I.; Harvey C.A.; Alfaro E.; Rodriguez D.A.; Bouroncle C.; Castellanos E.; Diaz F.; Fung E.; Hidalgo H.G.; Imbach P.; Läderach P.; Landrum J.P.; Solano A.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期:1
起始页码: 29
结束页码: 45
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture ; Climate models ; Crops ; Ecology ; Ecosystems ; Regional planning ; Adaptation policies ; Climate change impact ; Ecological response ; Ecosystem services ; Local adaptation ; Smallholder farmers ; Vulnerability factors ; Vulnerable groups ; Climate change ; agricultural ecosystem ; climate change ; climate modeling ; coffee ; crop yield ; ecosystem modeling ; ecosystem response ; ecosystem service ; environmental policy ; future prospect ; livelihood ; montane forest ; policy analysis ; regional climate ; regional economy ; Central America
英文摘要: Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84067
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, United States; Center for Geophysical Research and School of Physics, University of Costa Rica, San Pedro, Costa Rica; Earth System Science Center, National Institute for Space Research of Brazil, São Paulo, Brazil; Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica; Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala; International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), CGIAR program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, Colombia; American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Overseas Fellow serving at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Washington, DC, United States

Recommended Citation:
Hannah L.,Donatti C.I.,Harvey C.A.,et al. Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(1)
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