DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1894-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008514381
论文题名: Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions
作者: Cremona F. ; Vilbaste S. ; Couture R.-M. ; Nõges P. ; Nõges T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 2 起始页码: 347
结束页码: 361
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Algae
; Biomass
; Carbon
; Catchments
; Chains
; Flow of water
; Lakes
; Land use
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Water quality
; Average concentration
; Climate prediction
; Dissolved inorganic carbon
; Hydrological indicators
; Primary producers
; Quantitative changes
; Related variables
; Water abstraction
; Climate models
; catchment
; comparative study
; concentration (composition)
; cyanobacterium
; dissolved inorganic carbon
; future prospect
; hydrological regime
; plankton
; policy making
; shallow water
; twenty first century
; water quality
; zooplankton
; Chlorophyta
; Cyanobacteria
英文摘要: We constructed a model chain into which regional climate-related variables (air temperature, precipitation) and a lake’s main tributary hydrological indicators (river flow, dissolved inorganic carbon) were employed for predicting the evolution of planktonic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) and zooplankton (rotifer) biomass in that lake for the mid-21st century. Simulations were based on the future climate predicted under both the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which, combined with three realistic policy-making and basin land-use evolution lead to six scenarios for future water quality. Model outputs revealed that mean annual river flow is expected to decline between 3 and 20%, depending on the scenario. Concentration of river dissolved inorganic carbon is predicted to follow the opposite trend and might soar up to twice the 2005–2014 average concentration. Lake planktonic primary producers will display quantitative changes in the future decades whereas zooplankters will not. A 2 to 10% increase in mean cyanobacteria biomass is accompanied by a stagnation (−3 to +2%) of rotifer biomass. Changes in cyanobacteria and rotifer phenology are expected: a surge of cyanobacteria biomass in winter and a shortening of the rotifer biomass spring peak. The expected quantitative changes on the biota were magnified in those scenarios where forested area conversions to cropland and water abstraction were the greatest. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84086
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Centre for Limnology, Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Kreutzwaldi 5, Tartu, Estonia; Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalléen 21, Oslo, Norway; Ecohydrology Research Group, Water Institute and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Cremona F.,Vilbaste S.,Couture R.-M.,et al. Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(2)