globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1866-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85009231895
论文题名:
The impacts of increased heat stress events on wheat yield under climate change in China
作者: Yang X.; Tian Z.; Sun L.; Chen B.; Tubiello F.N.; Xu Y.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 605
结束页码: 620
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Crops ; Thermal stress ; Yield stress ; Crop growth model ; Extreme weather events ; General circulation model ; Growth enhancing effects ; Observational data ; Rainfall condition ; Wheat production ; Yield reduction ; Climate models ; acclimation ; climate change ; climate effect ; crop production ; crop yield ; environmental stress ; general circulation model ; growth modeling ; heating ; irrigation ; rainfall ; temperature effect ; weather ; wheat ; China ; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: China is the largest wheat-producing country in the world. Wheat is one of the two major staple cereals consumed in the country and about 60% of Chinese population eats the grain daily. To safeguard the production of this important crop, about 85% of wheat areas in the country are under irrigation or high rainfall conditions. However, wheat production in the future will be challenged by the increasing occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme weather events. In this paper, we present an analysis that combines outputs from a wide range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with observational data to produce more detailed projections of local climate suitable for assessing the impact of increasing heat stress events on wheat yield. We run the assessment at 36 representative sites in China using the crop growth model CSM-CropSim Wheat of DSSAT 4.5. The simulations based on historical data show that this model is suitable for quantifying yield damages caused by heat stress. In comparison with the observations of baseline 1996–2005, our simulations for the future indicate that by 2100 the projected increases in heat stress would lead to an ensemble-mean yield reduction of −7.1% (with a probability of 80%) and −17.5% (with a probability of 96%) for winter wheat and spring wheat, respectively, under the irrigated condition. Although such losses can be fully compensated by CO2 fertilization effect as parameterized in DSSAT 4.5, a great caution is needed in interpreting this fertilization effect because existing crop dynamic models are unable to incorporate the effect of CO2 acclimation (the growth-enhancing effect decreases over time) and other offsetting forces. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84097
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, China; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; School of Finance & Management, SOAS, University of London, London, United Kingdom; Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy; Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Yang X.,Tian Z.,Sun L.,et al. The impacts of increased heat stress events on wheat yield under climate change in China[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2018-03-04)
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