DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1859-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85001090569
论文题名: Anchoring climate change communications
作者: Harris A.J.L. ; Por H.-H. ; Broomell S.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 387
结束页码: 398
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Regulatory compliance
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Numerical range
; Probability expressions
; Risk and uncertainty
; Upper Bound
; Climate change
; climate change
; communication
; compliance
; data interpretation
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; probability
; risk assessment
; standard (regulation)
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Verbal probability expressions (VPEs) are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change attempts to standardise the use and interpretation of these expressions through a translation scale of numerical ranges to VPEs. A common issue in interpreting VPEs is the tendency for individuals to interpret VPEs around the midpoint of the scale (i.e. around 50%). Previous research has shown that compliance with the IPCC’s standards can be improved if the numerical translation is presented simultaneously with the VPE, reducing the regressiveness of interpretations. We show that an explicit statement of the lower or upper bound implied by the expression (e.g. 0–33%; 66–100%) leads to better differentiated estimates of the probability implied by ‘likely’ and ‘unlikely’ than when the bound is not explicitly identified (e.g. less than 33%; greater than 66%). © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84101
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Bronx, NY, United States; Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Harris A.J.L.,Por H.-H.,Broomell S.B.. Anchoring climate change communications[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2018-03-04)