globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1864-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85003881272
论文题名:
Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections
作者: Bakker A.M.R.; Louchard D.; Keller K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 339
结束页码: 347
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Flood control ; Floods ; Risk management ; Deep uncertainties ; Expert judgment ; Expert opinion ; Flood risk management ; Over-investment ; Robust strategy ; Sealevel change ; Sea level ; design ; flood ; hazard management ; probability ; risk assessment ; sea level change ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Long-term flood risk management often relies on future sea-level projections. Projected uncertainty ranges are however widely divergent as a result of different methodological choices. The IPCC has condensed this deep uncertainty into a single uncertainty range covering 66% probability or more. Alternatively, structured expert judgment summarizes divergent expert opinions in a single distribution. Recently published uncertainty ranges that are derived from these “consensus” assessments appear to differ by up to a factor four. This might result in overconfidence or overinvestment in strategies to cope with sea-level change. Here we explore possible reasons for these different interpretations. This is important for (i) the design of robust strategies and (ii) the exploration of pathways that may eventually lead to some kind of consensus distributions that are relatively straightforward to interpret. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84106
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Griffioenlaan 2, Utrecht, Netherlands; Aix-Marseille University, Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography (MIO) UM110, CEREGE UM34, Aix-en-Provence, France; Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, Switzerland; Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Bakker A.M.R.,Louchard D.,Keller K.. Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2018-03-04)
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