DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062932
论文题名: Do West African thunderstorms predict the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes?
作者: Price C. ; Reicher N. ; Yair Y.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8794
EISSN: 1944-8525
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 7 起始页码: 2457
结束页码: 2463
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ACE
; AEWs
; clouds
; hurricanes
; thunderstorms
Scopus关键词: Clouds
; Storms
; Thunderstorms
; Tropics
; Accumulated cyclone energies
; ACE
; AEWs
; African easterly waves
; Atlantic hurricane
; Brightness temperatures
; Cloud-top temperatures
; Equatorial Africa
; Hurricanes
; cyclone
; easterly wave
; environmental disturbance
; hurricane
; Meteosat
; thunderstorm
; Atlantic Ocean
; West Africa
英文摘要: Since 85% of all major Atlantic hurricanes originate as thunderstorm clusters in equatorial Africa, we have investigated the connection between these African thunderstorms and the consequent development of these disturbances into tropical storms. We have analyzed Meteosat infrared cloud top temperature data to determine the areal coverage of cold cloud tops over a 6 year period from 2005 to 2010. In addition, hurricane statistics from the same period (intensity, date of generation, location, and maximum winds) were obtained from the National Hurricane Center database. We first show that the areal coverage of cold clouds (with brightness temperatures Tb < -50C) in tropical Africa is a good indicator of the monthly number of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) leaving the west coast of tropical Africa. Furthermore, the AEWs that develop into tropical storms have a significantly larger area covered by cold cloud tops compared with nondeveloping waves. Finally, we show that on a storm-by-storm basis, the cold cloud coverage in West Africa is positively correlated (r = 0.57) with the accumulated cyclone energy of the future tropical cyclones that develop out of these waves. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928696545&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062932&partnerID=40&md5=be41434e67e9ae452fdf064ce9423a0d
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8410
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
Recommended Citation:
Price C.,Reicher N.,Yair Y.. Do West African thunderstorms predict the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(7).