DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1885-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85009816386
论文题名: Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing
作者: van der Wiel K. ; Kapnick S.B. ; Vecchi G.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 649
结束页码: 658
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric radiation
; Electric power system interconnection
; Climate extremes
; Extreme conditions
; Global analysis
; Human activities
; Interannual variability
; Radiative forcings
; Shifting patterns
; Southern oscillation
; Climate change
; annual variation
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; extreme event
; global perspective
; human activity
; radiative forcing
; regional pattern
; seasonal variation
; weather
英文摘要: Climate change has been shown to impact the mean climate state and climate extremes. Though climate extremes have the potential to disrupt society, extreme conditions are rare by definition. In contrast, mild weather occurs frequently and many human activities are built around it. We provide a global analysis of mild weather based on simple criteria and explore changes in response to radiative forcing. We find a slight global mean decrease in the annual number of mild days projected both in the near future (−4 days per year, 2016–2035) and at the end of this century (−10 days per year, 2081–2100). Projected seasonal and regional redistributions of mild days are substantially greater. These changes are larger than the interannual variability of mild weather caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Finally, we show an observed global decrease in the recent past, and that observed regional changes in mild weather resemble projections. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84111
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
van der Wiel K.,Kapnick S.B.,Vecchi G.A.. Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2018-03-04)