DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063587
论文题名: Predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclones in the GFDL HiRAM model
作者: Wang Z. ; Zhang G. ; Peng M.S. ; Chen J.-H. ; Lin S.-J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8795
EISSN: 1944-8526
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 7 起始页码: 2547
结束页码: 2554
语种: 英语
英文关键词: predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclones
; regional Hadley circulation
; seasonal prediction
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Forecasting
; Orthogonal functions
; Storms
; Tropics
; Empirical Orthogonal Function
; Environmental conditions
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Hadley circulation
; High-resolution atmospheric models
; Intertropical convergence zone
; Seasonal prediction
; Tropical cyclone
; Hurricanes
; annual variation
; climate prediction
; fluid dynamics
; hindcasting
; seasonal variation
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: The hindcasts of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), which skillfully predicted the interannual variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, were analyzed to investigate what key circulation systems a model must capture in order to skillfully predict TCs. The HiRAM reproduced the leading empirical orthogonal function mode (M1) of the interannual variability of the Atlantic Hadley circulation and its impacts on environmental conditions. M1 represents the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) intensity and width, and the predictability of Atlantic TCs can be explained by the lag correlation between M1 and SST in preceding months. Although the ITCZ displacement was not well predicted by the HiRAM hindcasts, it does not affect the prediction of the basin-wide hurricane count. The analyses suggest that the leading mode of the variability of the regional Hadley circulation can serve as a useful metric to evaluate the performance of global models in TC seasonal prediction. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928697165&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063587&partnerID=40&md5=3d7ecd529dc0e5bd8944bdd3ab81fb92
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8411
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wang Z.,Zhang G.,Peng M.S.,et al. Predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclones in the GFDL HiRAM model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(7).