| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL063449
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| 论文题名: | Introducing a probabilistic Budyko framework |
| 作者: | Greve P.; Gudmundsson L.; Orlowsky B.; Seneviratne S.I.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8796
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| EISSN: | 1944-8527
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 2261
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| 结束页码: | 2269
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Budyko framework
; probability distribution
; water availability
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| Scopus关键词: | Catchments
; Phase space methods
; Runoff
; Budyko framework
; Catchment characteristics
; Catchment scale
; Climatic conditions
; Practical experience
; Probabilistic estimates
; River runoffs
; Water availability
; Probability distributions
; catchment
; climate conditions
; estimation method
; evapotranspiration
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; river flow
; runoff
; water availability
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| 英文摘要: | Water availability is of importance for a wide range of ecological, climatological, and socioeconomic applications. Over land, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff essentially determines the availability of water. At mean annual catchment scales, the widely used Budyko framework provides a simple, deterministic, first-order relationship to estimate this partitioning as a function of the prevailing climatic conditions. Here we extend the framework by introducing a method to specify probabilistic estimates of water availability that account for the nonlinearity of the underlying phase space. The new framework allows to evaluate the predictability of water availability that is related to varying catchment characteristics and conditional on the underlying climatic conditions. Corresponding results support the practical experience of low predictability of river runoff in transitional climates. ©2015. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928703945&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063449&partnerID=40&md5=41793550c3095f1edb3eb5385cc32dae
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8412
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Greve P.,Gudmundsson L.,Orlowsky B.,et al. Introducing a probabilistic Budyko framework[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(7).
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