DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1840-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992036550
论文题名: Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’
作者: Grose M.R. ; Risbey J.S. ; Whetton P.H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 140, 期: 2 起始页码: 307
结束页码: 322
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate projections
; Climate variability
; Regional climate change
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Electric power system interconnection
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Climate model simulations
; Climate projection
; Climate variability
; Cyclic variabilities
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate projections
; Temperature projection
; Climate change
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; cooling
; global warming
; regional climate
; temperature profile
; weather forecasting
; Australia
; North America
; South Australia
英文摘要: The perception of the accuracy of regional climate projections made in the early 1990s about climate change by 2030 may be influenced by how the temperature trend has changed in the 25 years since their publication. However, temperature trends over this period were influenced not only by external forcings such as greenhouse gases but also natural variations. The temperature of Southern Australia, the Sahel, South Asia and Southern Europe are currently within the warming estimates from statements in the early 1990s from the IPCC and CSIRO, assuming a linear trend between 1990 and 2030. However, northern Australia and central North America are currently at the lower limit or below these projections, having featured areas of multi-year regional cooling during global warming, sometimes called ‘warming holes’. Recent climate model simulations suggest that cooling can be expected in the recent past and near future in some regions, including in Australia and the US, and that cooling is less likely over 1990–2030 than in 1990–2015, bringing observations closer to the IPCC and CSIRO warming estimates by 2030. Cooling at the 25-year scale in some regions can be associated with cyclic variability such as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, or low trend such as in the Southern Ocean. Explicitly communicating the variability in regional warming rates in climate projections, including the possibility of regional warming ‘holes’ (or the opposite of ‘surges’ or ‘peaks’) would help to set more reliable expectations by users of those projections. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84137
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Grose M.R.,Risbey J.S.,Whetton P.H.. Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,140(2)