| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-016-1828-5
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84991666942
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| 论文题名: | Climate change mitigation strategy under an uncertain Solar Radiation Management possibility |
| 作者: | Ekholm T.; Korhonen H.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 139, 期:2018-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 503
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| 结束页码: | 515
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Carbon dioxide
; Cost reduction
; Costs
; Emission control
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Radiation effects
; Risk perception
; Solar radiation
; Climate change mitigation
; Emission reduction
; Emission scenario
; Global-mean temperature
; Mitigation measures
; Ocean acidifications
; Optimal mitigation
; Radiation management
; Climate change
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate effect
; concentration (composition)
; cost analysis
; emission control
; environmental economics
; environmental management
; greenhouse gas
; probability
; solar radiation
; temperature effect
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| 英文摘要: | Solar radiation management (SRM) could provide a fast and low-cost option to mitigate global warming, but can also incur unwanted or unexpected climatic side-effects. As these side-effects involve substantial uncertainties, the optimal role of SRM cannot be yet determined. Here, we present probabilistic emission scenarios that limit global mean temperature increase to 2 °C under uncertainty on possible future SRM deployment. Three uncertainties relating to SRM deployment are covered: the start time, intensity and possible termination. We find that the uncertain SRM option allows very little additional GHG emissions before the SRM termination risk can be excluded, and the result proved robust over different hypothetical probability assumptions for SRM deployment. An additional CO2 concentration constraint, e.g. to mitigate ocean acidification, necessitates CO2 reductions even with strong SRM; but in such case SRM renders non-CO2 reductions unnecessary. This illustrates how the framing of climatic targets and available mitigation measures affect strongly the optimal mitigation strategies. The ability of SRM to decrease emission reduction costs is diminished by the uncertainty in SRM deployment and the possible concentration constraint, and also depends heavily on the assumed emission reduction costs. By holding SRM deployment time uncertain, we also find that carrying out safeguard emission reductions and delaying SRM deployment by 10 to 20 years increases reduction costs only moderately. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84155
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Vuorimiehentie 3, Espoo, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Ekholm T.,Korhonen H.. Climate change mitigation strategy under an uncertain Solar Radiation Management possibility[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,139(2018-03-04)
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