DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1807-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988374996
论文题名: Value of decadal climate variability information for agriculture in the Missouri River basin
作者: Fernandez M.A. ; Huang P. ; McCarl B. ; Mehta V.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 139, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 517
结束页码: 533
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climatology
; Crops
; Decision making
; Economic analysis
; Irrigation
; Probability distributions
; Rivers
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic programming
; Stochastic systems
; Watersheds
; Climate information
; Decadal climate variability
; Decision makers
; Economic values
; Long term planning
; Market activities
; Perfect informations
; Stochastic programming model
; Climate models
; agricultural management
; agrometeorology
; climate change
; crop yield
; decadal variation
; economic analysis
; knowledge
; maize
; probability
; Missouri Basin
; United States
; Bos
; Drosophila C virus
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: This study estimates economic value and management adaptations associated with decadal climate variability (DCV) information. We develop a stylized model to illustrate the value of climate information where agricultural decisions are conditional to different sets of DCV information. The decision maker can adjust management given such information where the economic value and associated adaptations are of interest. The framework is implemented within a stochastic programming model that simulates market activities and welfare changes under different probability distributions on DCV phase occurrence in the Missouri River Basin (MRB), the largest river basin in the USA. This basin produces approximately 46 % of the wheat, 33 % of the cattle, and 26 % of the grain corn in the USA. The results show that a conditional DCV information generates net benefits of $28.84 million annually, while the perfect information results in net benefits of $82.30 million. In addition, crop acreage shifts and the extent of irrigation vary with different DCV information. This study shows that the benefits gained from accurate climate information may address the producers’ needs across a range of DCV scenarios characterized by the persistence of the impacts. Most notably, this is the first economic study to our knowledge to investigate the combined occurrence of three DCV phenomena, and the joint and persistent impacts over crop yields. Our results provide compelling evidence for long-term planning of crop mix selection, and infrastructure related to water irrigation mechanisms. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84157
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Research and Investigation Unit, Auckland Council, 135 Albert, Auckland CBD, New Zealand; S&P Global Platts, 20 Canada Square, 9th Floor, London, United Kingdom; Texas A&M University, 1535 John Kimbrough Blvd, College Station, TX, United States; Center for Research on the Changing Earth, 5523 Research Park Drive, Suite 315, Catonsville, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fernandez M.A.,Huang P.,McCarl B.,et al. Value of decadal climate variability information for agriculture in the Missouri River basin[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,139(2018-03-04)