DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1782-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988328593
论文题名: Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration
作者: Williamson T.N. ; Nystrom E.A. ; Milly P.C.D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 139, 期: 2 起始页码: 215
结束页码: 228
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Actual evapotranspiration
; Climate change scenarios
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Energy-based methods
; Environmental resources
; Global climate model
; Hydrologic simulations
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global climate
; potential evapotranspiration
; precipitation (climatology)
; river basin
; sensitivity analysis
; snowpack
; streamflow
; temperature profile
; tributary
; Delaware River
; United States
英文摘要: The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) change. Hydrology was simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (Williamson et al. 2015). Climate-change scenarios for four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to derive monthly change factors for temperature (T), precipitation (PPT), and PET according to the energy-based method of Priestley and Taylor (1972). Hydrologic simulations indicate a general increase in annual (especially winter) streamflow (Q) as early as 2030 across the DRB, with a larger increase by 2060. This increase in Q is the result of (1) higher winter PPT, which outweighs an annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) increase and (2) (for winter) a major shift away from storage of PPT as snow pack. However, when PET change is evaluated instead using the simpler T-based method of Hamon (1963), the increases in Q are small or even negative. In fact, the change of Q depends as much on PET method as on time period or RCP. This large sensitivity and associated uncertainty underscore the importance of exercising caution in the selection of a PET method for use in climate-change analyses. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84169
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: US Geological Survey, Indiana-Kentucky Water Science Center, 9818 Bluegrass Parkway, Louisville, KY, United States; US Geological Survey, New York Water Science Center, 425 Jordan Rd., Troy, NY, United States; US Geological Survey, National Research Program, 201 Forrestal Rd, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Williamson T.N.,Nystrom E.A.,Milly P.C.D.. Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,139(2)