DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988350450
论文题名: Natural hazards in Australia: droughts
作者: Kiem A.S. ; Johnson F. ; Westra S. ; van Dijk A. ; Evans J.P. ; O’Donnell A. ; Rouillard A. ; Barr C. ; Tyler J. ; Thyer M. ; Jakob D. ; Woldemeskel F. ; Sivakumar B. ; Mehrotra R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 139, 期: 1 起始页码: 37
结束页码: 54
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Attribution
; Climate change, palaeoclimate
; Climate variability
; Drought
; Hydrology
; Water resources
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Forecasting
; Hazards
; Hydrology
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Water resources
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Attribution
; Climate variability
; Drought characteristics
; Palaeoclimate
; Realistic modelling
; Research challenges
; Temporal and spatial scale
; Drought
; baseline survey
; climate change
; climate modeling
; drought stress
; future prospect
; hazard management
; hydrology
; paleoclimate
; prediction
; research work
; water resource
; Australia
英文摘要: Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast and manage drought is exposed as insufficient whenever a drought occurs. This paper summarises what is known about drought hazard, as opposed to the impacts of drought, in Australia and finds that, unlike other hydroclimatic hazards, we currently have very limited ability to tell when a drought will begin or end. Understanding, defining, monitoring, forecasting and managing drought is also complex due to the variety of temporal and spatial scales at which drought occurs and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought. We argue that to improve understanding and management of drought, three key research challenges should be targeted: (1) defining and monitoring drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, start, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent) to remove confusion between drought causes, impacts and risks and better distinguish between drought, aridity, and water scarcity due to over-extractions; (2) documenting historical (instrumental and pre-instrumental) variation in drought to better understand baseline drought characteristics, enable more rigorous identification and attribution of drought events or trends, inform/evaluate hydrological and climate modelling activities and give insights into possible future drought scenarios; (3) improving the prediction and projection of drought characteristics with seasonal to multidecadal lead times and including more realistic modelling of the multiple factors that cause (or contribute to) drought so that the impacts of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change are accounted for and the reliability of long-term drought projections increases. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84170
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Water, Climate and Land (CWCL), Faculty of Science and IT, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Australia; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia; Department of Geography, Environment and Population, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Sprigg Geobiology Centre, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Environment and Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kiem A.S.,Johnson F.,Westra S.,et al. Natural hazards in Australia: droughts[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,139(1)