DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1738-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978827385
论文题名: The effect of climate change on rural land cover patterns in the Central United States
作者: Lant C. ; Stoebner T.J. ; Schoof J.T. ; Crabb B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 585
结束页码: 602
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change adaptation
; Climatic downscaling
; Land use land cover change
; U.S. Midwest
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Cotton
; Crops
; Forestry
; Land use
; Climate change adaptation
; Corn-soybean rotations
; Coupled climate model
; Down-scaling
; High spatial resolution
; Land use land cover change
; U.S. Midwest
; Western Great Plains
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; agrometeorology
; climate change
; cotton
; crop rotation
; downscaling
; land cover
; land use change
; maize
; rural area
; soybean
; spatial resolution
; wheat
; Great Plains
; Midwest
; United States
; Glycine max
; Gossypium hirsutum
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution (see https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.859593?format=html), while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three coupled climate models, three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area within the study area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes; suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean rotations to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84210
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Environment and Society and Utah Agricultural Experiment Station, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Environmental Systems Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, United States; Department of Geography and Environment Resources, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, United States; Remote Sensing/GIS Lab, Quinney College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lant C.,Stoebner T.J.,Schoof J.T.,et al. The effect of climate change on rural land cover patterns in the Central United States[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-03-04)