| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-016-1708-z
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84973124426
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| 论文题名: | Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index |
| 作者: | Knutson T.R.; Ploshay J.J.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 138, 期:2018-01-02 | | 起始页码: | 25
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| 结束页码: | 39
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Thermal stress
; Anthropogenic influence
; Anthropogenic warming
; Historical simulation
; Interannual variability
; Model ensembles
; Surface temperatures
; Temperature and humidities
; Wet bulb globe temperature indices
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; detection method
; environmental stress
; global change
; global warming
; index method
; nature-society relations
; relative humidity
; summer
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| 英文摘要: | One of the most consequential impacts of anthropogenic warming on humans may be increased heat stress, combining temperature and humidity effects. Here we examine whether there are now detectable changes in summertime heat stress over land regions. As a heat stress metric we use a simplified wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index. Observed trends in WBGT (1973–2012) are compared to trends from CMIP5 historical simulations (eight-model ensemble) using either anthropogenic and natural forcing agents combined or natural forcings alone. Our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed. A detectable increase is found over a larger fraction of land for WBGT than for temperature, as WBGT summertime means have lower interannual variability than surface temperature at gridbox scales. Notably, summertime WBGT over land has continued increasing in recent years--consistent with climate models--despite the apparent ‘hiatus’ in global warming and despite a decreasing tendency in observed relative humidity over land since the late 1990s. © 2016, The Author(s). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84216
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory / NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Knutson T.R.,Ploshay J.J.. Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-01-02)
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