Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Ice
; Spatial variables measurement
; Surface waters
; Temperature
; Water
; Freshwater ecosystem
; Laurentian Great Lakes
; Long-term management
; Mechanistic modeling
; Spatial and temporal variation
; Spatial variability
; Surface temperatures
; Surface water temperature
; Lakes
; climate change
; climate effect
; ecosystem response
; freshwater ecosystem
; ice cover
; spatial variation
; surface temperature
; temperate environment
; trend analysis
; water temperature
; Canada
; Great Lakes [North America]
; Laurentian Mountains
; Quebec [Canada]
英文摘要:
The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems. � 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Institute for Fisheries Research, University of Michigan and Michigan Department of Natural Resources, 400 North Ingalls, NIB G250, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mason L.A.,Riseng C.M.,Gronewold A.D.,et al. Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-01-02)