DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1720-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983604766
论文题名: On the declining relationship between tree growth and climate in the Midwest United States: the fading drought signal
作者: Maxwell J.T. ; Harley G.L. ; Robeson S.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 127
结束页码: 142
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Cooling systems
; Deterioration
; Drought
; Forestry
; Moisture
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Calibration and validations
; Calibration model
; Calibration periods
; Calibration verification
; Drought conditions
; Empirical distributions
; Linear relationships
; Moisture conditions
; Trees (mathematics)
; climate change
; climate modeling
; drought
; growth rate
; soil moisture
; tree
; tree ring
; Midwest
; United States
英文摘要: Tree rings are widely considered to be a reliable proxy record of variations in climate and soil moisture. Here, using data from the Midwest United States (US), we provide documentation of a deteriorating relationship between radial tree growth and drought that is consistent across multiple species and locations. We find that traditional methods for drought reconstructions produce models that have rapidly declining validation statistics in recent decades. Split-sample calibration-verification that uses the first and second halves of the record can be problematic, as those two samples may not represent a sufficiently wide range of soil moisture conditions. To investigate this problem, we develop a randomized validation procedure that generates an empirical distribution of calibration and validation statistics. We place validation statistics derived from traditional methods in the generated distribution and compare them to a stratified approach that ensures each calibration model is composed of a sample that includes both dry and wet years. We find that the deteriorating relationship between tree growth and soil moisture is an artifact of the absence of drought over an extended period of time. A model that forces each calibration period to contain extreme drought years is statistically validated. Nonetheless, if the current pluvial continues in the Midwest US, the linear relationship between tree rings and soil moisture will likely continue to deteriorate to the point where tree rings in the region will have a reduced ability to estimate past drought conditions. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84224
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Tree-Ring Laboratory, Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States; Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States; Dendron Laboratory, Department of Geography and Geology, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS, United States
Recommended Citation:
Maxwell J.T.,Harley G.L.,Robeson S.M.. On the declining relationship between tree growth and climate in the Midwest United States: the fading drought signal[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-01-02)