globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1728-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84976320662
论文题名:
Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity
作者: Balaguru K.; Judi D.R.; Leung L.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 99
结束页码: 110
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Floods ; Sea level ; Storms ; Tropics ; Coupled climate model ; Emissions scenarios ; Hurricane intensification ; Hurricane intensity ; Hurricane storm surge ; Maximum intensities ; National Weather Services ; Thermodynamic potentials ; Hurricanes ; climate change ; climate modeling ; environmental impact assessment ; future prospect ; hurricane ; risk assessment ; sea level change ; seasonal variation ; storm surge ; thermodynamics ; tropical environment ; Atlantic Ocean ; Florida [United States] ; Gulf of Mexico ; United States
英文摘要: Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 % and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84232
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Marine Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States; Operational Safeguards and Logistics, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Balaguru K.,Judi D.R.,Leung L.R.. Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-01-02)
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