DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1697-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969792595
论文题名: Possible impact of climate change on the occurrence and the epidemic development of cercospora leaf spot disease (Cercospora beticola sacc.) in sugar beets for Rhineland-Palatinate and the southern part of Hesse
作者: Kremer P. ; Schlüter J. ; Racca P. ; Fuchs H.-J. ; Lang C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 481
结束页码: 494
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Economics
; Fungicides
; Sugar beets
; Disease modeling
; Epidemic development
; Forecasting modeling
; Fungicide application
; Leaf spot disease
; Modeling project
; Regional climate modeling
; Socio-economic development
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; epidemic
; fungal disease
; fungicide
; fungus
; growing season
; growth modeling
; leaf
; numerical model
; ontogeny
; simulation
; Southern Hemisphere
; sugar beet
; Germany
; Hesse
; Rhineland-Palatinate
; Beta vulgaris subsp. vulgaris
; Cercospora
; Cercospora beticola
; Fungi
英文摘要: In this study the possible impact of climate change on the occurrence of the Cercospora leaf spot disease (CLS) in sugar beet, triggered by the fungus Cercospora beticola sacc., and its regional differentiation in Southwest Germany was analyzed by means of the forecasting model CERCBET1. The model projects the day of the year (DOY) when 1 %, 50 % and 100 % of the fields in the region are potentially infested by Cercospora Leaf Spot disease (CLS1, CLS50 and CLS100). To run the disease model the data of the REgional climate MOdel REMO were used. The possible impact of climate change on the occurrence was studied comparing three time windows: baseline period ‘B′ (1971–2000), medium-term period ‘K‘ (2021–2050), long-term period ‘L‘ (2071–2100). In addition the ontogenesis of the young sugar beet plants was simulated using a leaf-growth model. The results of CERCBET1 and the leaf-growth model were compared to draw conclusions whether CLS potentially would occur in a different leaf stage. The dates of completion of the 20- and 40-leaf stage (B20 and B40) therefore were examined. The simulation results indicate an earlier CLS occurrence as well as an accelerated leaf growth due to the projected climate change. The disease might occur in earlier growth stages of the sugar beet plants. A possible consequence of the earlier CLS occurrence could be an increasing number of necessary fungicide applications also regarding the prolonged growing season. For period L, especially, projections are difficult to make due to the uncertainties of the archived breeding progress, particularly regarding the breeding for resistance, the development of fungicides and the future socio-economic development. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84238
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg-University, Johann-Joachim-Becher-Weg 21, Mainz, Germany; Association of Sugar Beet Farmers in Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate, Rathenaustr. 10, Worms, Germany; Central Institution for Decision Support Systems in Crop Protection (ZEPP), Rüdesheimer Straße 60-68, Bad Kreuznach, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Kremer P.,Schlüter J.,Racca P.,et al. Possible impact of climate change on the occurrence and the epidemic development of cercospora leaf spot disease (Cercospora beticola sacc.) in sugar beets for Rhineland-Palatinate and the southern part of Hesse[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-03-04)