DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1690-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84968542488
论文题名: Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil
作者: Batista R.J.R. ; Gonçalves F.L.T. ; da Rocha R.P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 439
结束页码: 454
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Thermal comfort
; Climate variability
; Equivalent temperature
; Future projections
; Metropolitan regions
; Range distribution
; Thermal comfort index
; Warming patterns
; Weather stations
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; data set
; future prospect
; long-term change
; metropolitan area
; nature-society relations
; relative humidity
; stakeholder
; trend analysis
; warming
; weather station
; Brazil
; Sao Paulo [Brazil]
英文摘要: The metropolitan region of São Paulo (MRSP) is a densely populated area with approximately 20 million people. The impact of climate variability on the population can be estimated by the use of thermal comfort indexes. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of projected climate change on the thermal comfort index, IPET (Indoor Perceived Equivalent Temperature), over MRSP, based on a two-weather-stations dataset. For this, four RegCM4 projections from the CREMA (CORDEX REgCM4 hyper-Matrix experiment) project for the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) are used in two time slices: present (1975–2005), and future (2065–2099) climates. The IPET index is calculated for both present and future climates and the datasets are subdivided by quantiles, annual means and interpretative range categories. In the present climate, all simulation members are compared with two observed datasets representing the MRSP. The result of this comparison indicates that the simulation members properly represent the long-term means of the variables used in the IPET calculation. The trend analysis of all simulation members shows a warming pattern for IPET, which rises from 19.1–21.3°C, for the present, to 23.5–25.1°C, for the future climate. The spatial pattern indicates that the MRSP is located in a transitional zone where IPET in the future climate becomes higher than temperature due to the relative humidity increase. This result emphasizes that the increase of relative humidity plays an important role in increasing IPET. The simulations also indicate that the values of the lower and higher IPET quantiles will decrease and increase in the future, respectively. Considering thermal comfort, the IPET interpretative range distribution trends show a decrease of days in the “cool” category and an increase of days in the “warm” category. The overall results corroborate studies pointing to a warming pattern that could impact society in the MRSP. This could provide an important tool to promote the subsidization of Brazilian stakeholders wishing to take mitigative actions. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84243
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Batista R.J.R.,Gonçalves F.L.T.,da Rocha R.P.. Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-03-04)