DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1692-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966649869
论文题名: A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees
作者: Darbyshire R. ; Measham P. ; Goodwin I.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 541
结束页码: 556
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Cultivation
; Adaptation strategies
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Chilling requirement
; Climate projection
; Limited risk
; Policy makers
; Time horizons
; Winter chill
; Risk assessment
; adaptive management
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; cold tolerance
; crop production
; cultivar
; environmental risk
; fruit
; future prospect
; nut
; policy making
; risk assessment
; yield response
; Australia
; Juglans
; Prunus dulcis
英文摘要: Anthropogenic climate change will influence winter chill accumulation, with future declines likely in temperate locations. However, these declines only translate as impacts when cultivar winter chilling requirements are not satisfied. This study presents a methodology to evaluate future impacts of declining winter chill through a cultivarspecific approach which is useful for growers, industry and policy-makers to develop adaptation strategies. A risk based system was applied to represent the likelihood of meeting cultivar chilling requirements using low, medium, medium-high and high risk ratings based on percentiles. This was combined with climate projection uncertainty graphically at 16 Australian growing districts historically (1981–2010) and for 2030, 2050 and 2090. The results demonstrated that impacts and likely adaptation options differed between cultivars, some recording limited risk at all sites out to 2090 ('Nonpareil' almond) whilst others recorded greater risk both historically and into the future ('Chandler' walnut). Notably, risk differed across sites and with the future time period. These results highlight which cultivars are susceptible to low winter chill conditions, where this risk does and does not manifest and the different time horizons at which the risk will materialise across Australia's main growing districts. Using this approach, changes in winter chill conditions are presented in a useable form which allows for appropriate climate adaptation strategies to be developed, securing the industries into the future. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84245
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia; Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Victorian Government, Tatura, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Darbyshire R.,Measham P.,Goodwin I.. A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-03-04)