DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978904256
论文题名: Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise
作者: Buchanan M.K. ; Kopp R.E. ; Oppenheimer M. ; Tebaldi C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 347
结束页码: 362
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Flood control
; Probability distributions
; Risk management
; Risk perception
; Sea level
; Surge protection
; Tide gages
; Uncertainty analysis
; Coastal flood risks
; Decision makers
; Flood protection
; Flood risk management
; Mean sea level
; Planning horizons
; Risk tolerance
; Sea level rise
; Floods
; coastal zone
; coastal zone management
; decision making
; estimation method
; flood
; probability density function
; risk assessment
; sea level change
; tide gauge
; uncertainty analysis
; United States
英文摘要: Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections. We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions of local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. We illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84257
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers Energy Institute, and Institute of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Buchanan M.K.,Kopp R.E.,Oppenheimer M.,et al. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-03-04)