globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964311525
论文题名:
Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century
作者: Lelieveld J.; Proestos Y.; Hadjinicolaou P.; Tanarhte M.; Tyrlis E.; Zittis G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 245
结束页码: 260
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Business-as-usual ; Climate projection ; Climate warming ; Maximum temperature ; Middle East and North Africa ; Model calculations ; Temperature extremes ; Uncertainty evaluation ; Climate models ; climate change ; climate modeling ; desert ; extreme event ; precipitation (climatology) ; temperature anomaly ; twenty first century ; uncertainty analysis ; warming ; Middle East ; North Africa ; South Asia
英文摘要: The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43 °C, which could increase to about 46 °C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50 °C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84264
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany; The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, Nicosia, Cyprus

Recommended Citation:
Lelieveld J.,Proestos Y.,Hadjinicolaou P.,et al. Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-01-02)
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