globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1669-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962653815
论文题名:
Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events
作者: Schär C.; Ban N.; Fischer E.M.; Rajczak J.; Schmidli J.; Frei C.; Giorgi F.; Karl T.R.; Kendon E.J.; Tank A.M.G.K.; O’Gorman P.A.; Sillmann J.; Zhang X.; Zwiers F.W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 201
结束页码: 216
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate studies ; Daily precipitations ; Frequency index ; Heavy precipitation ; Regional climate models ; Typical application ; Typical climates ; Wet-day frequency ; Climate models ; climate change ; climate modeling ; precipitation assessment ; precipitation intensity ; quantitative analysis ; regional climate ; theoretical study ; threshold
英文摘要: Many climate studies assess trends and projections in heavy precipitation events using precipitation percentile (or quantile) indices. Here we investigate three different percentile indices that are commonly used. We demonstrate that these may produce very different results and thus require great care with interpretation. More specifically, consideration is given to two intensity-based indices and one frequency-based index, namely (a) all-day percentiles, (b) wet-day percentiles, and (c) frequency indices based on the exceedance of a percentile threshold. Wet-day percentiles are conditionally computed for the subset of wet events (with precipitation exceeding some threshold, e.g. 1 mm/d for daily precipitation). We present evidence that this commonly used methodology can lead to artifacts and misleading results if significant changes in the wet-day frequency are not accounted for. Percentile threshold indices measure the frequency of exceedance with respect to a percentile-based threshold. We show that these indices yield an assessment of changes in heavy precipitation events that is qualitatively consistent with all-day percentiles, but there are substantial differences in quantitative terms. We discuss the reasons for these effects, present a theoretical assessment, and provide a series of examples using global and regional climate models to quantify the effects in typical applications. Application to climate model output shows that these considerations are relevant to a wide range of typical climate-change applications. In particular, wet-day percentiles generally yield different results, and in most instances should not be used for the impact-oriented assessment of changes in heavy precipitation events. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84275
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätsstr. 16, Zürich, Switzerland; Goethe-University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; National Center for Environmental Information, NOAA, Asheville, NC, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States; CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway; Climate Research, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Schär C.,Ban N.,Fischer E.M.,et al. Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-01-02)
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