globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964388631
论文题名:
Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change
作者: Forzieri G.; Feyen L.; Russo S.; Vousdoukas M.; Alfieri L.; Outten S.; Migliavacca M.; Bianchi A.; Rojas R.; Cid A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 137, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 105
结束页码: 119
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Drought ; Fires ; Floods ; Hazards ; Storms ; Adaptation policies ; Climate projection ; Extreme weather events ; Process characteristics ; Quantitative comparison ; Rising temperatures ; Spatial gradients ; Spatial patterns ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate conditions ; drought ; environmental policy ; extreme event ; flooding ; hazard assessment ; natural disaster ; streamflow ; twenty first century ; wildfire ; Europe
英文摘要: While reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. Several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. A multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple climate extremes in Europe along the twenty-first century is hereby presented. Using an ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated. Corresponding variations in expected annual exposure allow for a quantitative comparison of hazards described by different process characteristics and metrics. Projected changes in exposure depict important variations in hazard scenarios, especially those linked to rising temperatures, and spatial patterns largely modulated by local climate conditions. Results show that Europe will likely face a progressive increase in overall climate hazard with a prominent spatial gradient towards south-western regions mainly driven by the rise of heat waves, droughts and wildfires. Key hotspots emerge particularly along coastlines and in floodplains, often highly populated and economically pivotal, where floods and windstorms could be critical in combination with other climate hazards. Projected increases in exposure will be larger for very extreme events due to their pronounced changes in frequency. Results of this appraisal provide useful input for forthcoming European disaster risk and adaptation policy. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84276
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Climate Risk Management Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA, Italy; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Econometrics and Applied Statistics Unit, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA, Italy; Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University hill, Mitilene, Lesbos, Greece; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormhlensgt, 47, Bergen, Norway; Biogeochemical Integration Department, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany; CSIRO, Land and Water, Private Bag Nr 5, PO Wembley, Perth, WA, Australia; Environmental Hydraulics Institute, IH Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria, C/ Isabel Torres 15, PCTCAN, Santander, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Forzieri G.,Feyen L.,Russo S.,et al. Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,137(2018-01-02)
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