DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1637-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84960398865
论文题名: An assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on snow and peak river flows across Britain
作者: Bell V.A. ; Kay A.L. ; Davies H.N. ; Jones R.G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 539
结束页码: 553
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Flow of water
; Rain
; Rivers
; Snow
; Coupled modeling
; Distributed hydrological model
; Ensemble members
; Hydrological response
; Natural variability
; Potential impacts
; Rainfall patterns
; Spatial variability
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; environmental assessment
; future prospect
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological response
; peak flow
; rainfall
; river flow
; seasonality
; snow
; snowmelt
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: A temperature-based snow module has been coupled with a grid-based distributed hydrological model, to improve simulations of river flows in upland areas of Britain subject to snowfall and snowmelt. The coupled model has been driven with data from an 11-member perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble, for two time-slices (1960–1990 and 2069–2099), to investigate the potential impacts of climate change. The analysis indicates large reductions in the ensemble mean of the number of lying snow days across the country. This in turn affects the seasonality of peak river flows in some parts of the country; for northerly regions, annual maxima tend to occur earlier in the water year in future. For more southerly regions the changes are less straightforward, and likely driven by changes in rainfall patterns rather than snow. The modelled percentage changes in peak flows illustrate high spatial variability in hydrological response to projected climate change, and large differences between ensemble members. When changes in projected future peak flows are compared to an estimate of current natural variability, more changes fall outside the range of natural variability in southern Britain than in the north. © 2016, Crown Copyright. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84286
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Bell V.A.,Kay A.L.,Davies H.N.,et al. An assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on snow and peak river flows across Britain[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)