DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1639-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84960093997
论文题名: Evaluating the impact and uncertainty of reservoir operation for malaria control as the climate changes in Ethiopia
作者: Reis J. ; Culver T.B. ; Block P.J. ; McCartney M.P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 601
结束页码: 614
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Diseases
; Environmental protection
; Reservoirs (water)
; Runoff
; Water levels
; Water resources
; Annual precipitation
; Energy generations
; Environmental policy
; Operation management
; Precipitation change
; Reservoir operation
; Temperature increase
; Water-level fluctuation
; Malaria control
; climate change
; environmental policy
; evaporation
; irrigation system
; larval development
; malaria
; power generation
; precipitation (climatology)
; time series analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; water resource
; Ethiopia
英文摘要: Promising environmental mechanisms to control malaria are presently underutilized. Water level fluctuations to interrupt larval development have recently been studied and proposed as a low-impact malaria intervention in Ethiopia. One impediment to implementing such new environmental policies is the uncertain impact of climate change on water resources, which could upend reservoir operation policies. Here we quantified the potential impact of the malaria management under future climate states. Simulated time-series were constructed by resampling historical precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data (1994–2002), imposing a 2 °C temperature increase and precipitation changes with a range of ±20 %. Runoff was generated for each climate scenario using the model GR4J. The runoff was used as input into a calibrated HEC ResSim model of reservoir operations. The malaria operation management increased the baseline scenario median energy generation by 18.2 GWh y−1 and decreased the energy generation at the 0.5 percentile (during dry conditions) by 7.3 GWh y−1. In scenarios with −20 % precipitation, malaria control increased average annual energy generation by 1.3 GWh y−1 but only decreased the lowest 0.5 percentile of energy by 0.2 GWh y−1; the irrigation demand was not met on 8.5 more days, on average, per year. Applying the malaria control rule to scenarios with +20 % precipitation decreased the likelihood of flooding by an average of 1.0 day per year. While the malaria control would divert some water away from other reservoir operational goals, the intervention requires 3.3–3.7 % of the annual precipitation budget, which is much less than reduction from potential droughts. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84292
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, NY, United States; Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, Thornton Hall, P.O. Box 400742, Charlottesville, VA, United States; Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin, 1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI, United States; International Water Management Institute, P. O. Box 4199, Vientiane, Laos
Recommended Citation:
Reis J.,Culver T.B.,Block P.J.,et al. Evaluating the impact and uncertainty of reservoir operation for malaria control as the climate changes in Ethiopia[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)