DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1635-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84960090519
论文题名: Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil: how do changes driven by the new set of IPCC climatic projections affect their relevance for policy?
作者: Filho J.P.D. ; Lapola D.M. ; Torres R.R. ; Lemos M.C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 413
结束页码: 425
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Behavioral research
; Climate models
; Decision making
; Climate change adaptation
; Climate projection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Metropolitan area
; National policies
; Social indicators
; Spatial resolution
; Vulnerability index
; Climate change
; climate change
; decision making
; environmental planning
; environmental policy
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; metropolitan area
; national planning
; project management
; social policy
; spatial resolution
; vulnerability
; Bahia
; Belo Horizonte
; Brazil
; Minas Gerais
; Minas Gerais
; Rio de Janeiro [Brazil]
; Salvador
英文摘要: This paper updates the SCVI (Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index) maps developed by Torres et al. (2012) for Brazil, by using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections and more recent 2010 social indicators data. The updated maps differ significantly from their earlier versions in two main ways. First, they show that heavily populated metropolitan areas – namely Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Salvador, Manaus, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo – and a large swath of land across the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Bahia now have the highest SCVI values, that is, their populations are the most vulnerable to climate change in the country. Second, SCVI values for Northeast Brazil are considerably lower compared to the previous index version. An analysis of the causes of such difference reveals that changes in climate projections between CMIP3 and CMIP5 are responsible for most of the change between the different SCVI values and spatial distribution, while changes in social indicators have less influence, despite recent countrywide improvements in social indicators as a result of aggressive anti-poverty programs. These results raise the hypothesis that social reform alone may not be enough to decrease people’s vulnerability to future climatic changes. Whereas the coarse spatial resolution and relatively simplistic formulation of the SCVI may limit how useful these maps are at informing decision-making at the local level, they can provide a valuable input for large-scale policies on climate change adaptation such as those of the Brazilian National Policy on Climate Change Adaptation. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84294
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth System Science Laboratory, Department of Ecology, São Paulo State University – UNESP, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil; Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá (IRN/UNIFEI), Itajubá, MG, Brazil; School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Filho J.P.D.,Lapola D.M.,Torres R.R.,et al. Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil: how do changes driven by the new set of IPCC climatic projections affect their relevance for policy?[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)