DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1641-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84960124967
论文题名: Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies
作者: Alfieri L. ; Feyen L. ; Di Baldassarre G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 507
结束页码: 521
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Flood control
; Global warming
; Risk assessment
; Adaptation strategies
; Catastrophic floods
; Flood protection
; Flood risk assessments
; Pan-European assessments
; Recovery process
; Socio-economics
; Water retention
; Floods
; adaptation
; assessment method
; catastrophic event
; climate change
; flood
; flooding
; global warming
; hazard management
; natural hazard
; peak flow
; risk assessment
; vulnerability
; water retention
; Europe
英文摘要: Future flood risk in Europe is likely to increase due to a combination of climatic and socio-economic drivers. Effective adaptation strategies need to be implemented to limit the impact of river flooding on population and assets. This research builds upon a recently developed flood risk assessment framework at European scale to explore the benefits of adaptation against extreme floods. The effect of implementing four different adaptation measures is simulated in the modeling framework. Measures include the rise of flood protections, reduction of the peak flows through water retention, reduction of vulnerability and relocation to safer areas. Their sensitivity is assessed in several configurations under a high-end global warming scenario over the time range 1976–2100. Results suggest that the future increase in expected damage and population affected by river floods can be compensated through different configurations of adaptation measures. The adaptation efforts should favor measures targeted at reducing the impacts of floods, rather than trying to avoid them. Conversely, adaptation plans only based on rising flood protections have the effect of reducing the frequency of small floods and exposing the society to less-frequent but catastrophic floods and potentially long recovery processes. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84295
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: European Commission - Joint Research Centre, TP 122, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra (VA), Italy; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Alfieri L.,Feyen L.,Di Baldassarre G.. Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)