DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1626-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959363486
论文题名: Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D
作者: Anadon L.D. ; Baker E. ; Bosetti V. ; Aleluia Reis L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 677
结束页码: 691
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Carbon
; Carbon capture
; Cost benefit analysis
; Cost reduction
; Costs
; Decision making
; Electrophysiology
; Energy security
; Investments
; Carbon capture and storages (CCS)
; Cost of energies
; Energy technologies
; Expert elicitation
; Harvard
; Policy makers
; Technological change
; Climate change
; academic research
; alternative energy
; attitudinal survey
; climate change
; cost analysis
; decision making
; innovation
; investment incentive
; mitigation
; perception
; research and development
; technology
; view
; Amherst
; Massachusetts
; United States
英文摘要: Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be cost reductions resulting from R&D and report median cost reductions around 20 % for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the improvements associated to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. We conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84303
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Economics, Bocconi University, Milano, Italy; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy; Department of Science, Technology, Engineering & Public Policy, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Anadon L.D.,Baker E.,Bosetti V.,et al. Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)