DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1606-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957023978
论文题名: Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment
作者: Hasegawa T. ; Fujimori S. ; Takahashi K. ; Yokohata T. ; Masui T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2 起始页码: 189
结束页码: 202
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Health
; Losses
; Risk assessment
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change impact
; Computable general equilibrium model
; Economic implications
; Global climate model
; Gross domestic products
; Health expenditures
; Household Consumption
; Model uncertainties
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; computable general equilibrium analysis
; crop yield
; economic impact
; Gross Domestic Product
; health expenditure
; malnutrition
; morbidity
; mortality
; nature-society relations
; public health
; uncertainty analysis
; willingness to pay
英文摘要: This study quantified the impacts of climate change on human health through undernourishment using two economic measures. First, changes in morbidity and mortality due to nine diseases caused by being underweight as a child were analyzed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with changes in the labor force, population, and demands for healthcare taken into consideration. Second, changes in mortality were taken from the CGE simulation and assessed economically by the value of lives lost and willingness to pay to reduce the risk. Model uncertainties in future crop yields and climate conditions were considered using future projections from six global crop models and five global climate models. We found that the economic valuation of healthy lives lost due to undernourishment under climate change was equivalent to −0.4 % to 0.0 % of global gross domestic product (GDP) and was regionally heterogeneous, ranging from −4.0 % to 0.0 % of regional GDP in 2100. In contrast, the actual economic losses associated with the effects of additional health expenditure and the decrease in the labor force due to undernourishment resulting from climate change corresponded to a − 0.1 % to 0.0 % change in GDP and a − 0.2 % to 0.0 % change in household consumption, respectively, at the global level. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84306
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Hasegawa T.,Fujimori S.,Takahashi K.,et al. Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2)