DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683
论文题名: Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011
作者: Rupp D.E. ; Li S. ; Massey N. ; Sparrow S.N. ; Mote P.W. ; Allen M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8814
EISSN: 1944-8545
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 7 起始页码: 2392
结束页码: 2400
语种: 英语
英文关键词: A2011
; attribution
; drought
; heat wave
; likelihood
; Texas
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Drought
; Global warming
; Moisture
; Soil moisture
; 2011
; Attribution
; Heat waves
; Likelihood
; Texas
; Atmospheric temperature
; atmospheric circulation
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; ecological footprint
; global warming
; hydrological cycle
; precipitation (climatology)
; simulation
; soil moisture
; summer
; Texas
; United States
英文摘要: The impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability of high mean summer temperatures being exceeded in Texas in the year 2011 was investigated using an atmospheric circulation model to simulate large ensembles of the world with 2011 level forcing and 5 "counterfactual" worlds under preindustrial forcing. In Texas, drought is a strong control on summer temperature, so an increased frequency in large precipitation deficits and/or soil moisture deficits that may result from anthropogenic forcing could magnify the regional footprint of global warming. However, no simulated increase in the frequency of large precipitation deficits, or of soil moisture deficits, was detected from preindustrial to year 2011 conditions. Despite the lack of enhancement to warming via these potential changes in the hydrological cycle, the likelihood of a given unusually high summer temperature being exceeded was simulated to be about 10 times greater due to anthropogenic emissions. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928695408&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062683&partnerID=40&md5=86c0f8afba1ab8b43469c6176793ac4d
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8430
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rupp D.E.,Li S.,Massey N.,et al. Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(7).