globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0964-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886816390
论文题名:
The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development
作者: Calvin K.; Pachauri S.; De Cian E.; Mouratiadou I.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期:1
起始页码: 109
结束页码: 125
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Economic analysis ; Economics ; Energy utilization ; Regional planning ; Developed countries ; Economic growth rate ; Energy intensity ; Per capita income ; Political factors ; Regional development ; Residential energy ; Sub-saharan africa ; Population statistics
英文摘要: Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84311
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Joint Global Change Research Institute/PNNL, College Park, MD, United States; Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Venice, Italy; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research/PIK, P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Calvin K.,Pachauri S.,De Cian E.,et al. The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(1)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Calvin K.]'s Articles
[Pachauri S.]'s Articles
[De Cian E.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Calvin K.]'s Articles
[Pachauri S.]'s Articles
[De Cian E.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Calvin K.]‘s Articles
[Pachauri S.]‘s Articles
[De Cian E.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.