DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1666-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962855334
论文题名: Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
作者: González-Eguino M. ; Neumann M.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2 起始页码: 381
结束页码: 388
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Budget control
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Fossil fuels
; Industrial emissions
; Permafrost
; Thawing
; Climate feedbacks
; Integrated assessment models
; Integrated modeling
; Mitigation costs
; Permafrost thawing
; Permafrost thaws
; Radiative forcings
; Temperature increase
; Climate change
; carbon dioxide
; carbon sequestration
; climate change
; climate modeling
; economic analysis
; emissions trading
; environmental assessment
; environmental management
; fossil fuel
; future prospect
; industrial emission
; methane
; permafrost
; thawing
; warming
; Arctic
英文摘要: Large amounts of carbon are stored as permafrost within the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. As permafrost thaws due to climate warming, carbon dioxide and methane are released. Recent studies indicate that the pool of carbon susceptible to future thaw is higher than was previously thought and that more carbon could be released by 2100, even under low emission pathways. We use an integrated model of the climate and the economy to study how including these new estimates influence the control of climate change to levels that will likely keep the temperature increase below 2 °C (radiative forcing of 2.6 Wm−2). According to our simulations, the fossil fuel and industrial CO2 emissions need to peak 5–10 years earlier and the carbon budget needs to be reduced by 6–17 % to offset this additional source of warming. The required increase in carbon price implies a 6–21 % higher mitigation cost to society compared to a situation where emissions from permafrost are not considered. Including other positive climate feedbacks, currently not accounted for in integrated assessment models, could further increase these numbers. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84312
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Alameda de Urquijo, 4, Bilbao, Spain; University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Bizkaia, Spain; IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain
Recommended Citation:
González-Eguino M.,Neumann M.B.. Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2)