DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1603-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84954559765
论文题名: How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study
作者: Harmsen M.J.H.M. ; van den Berg M. ; Krey V. ; Luderer G. ; Marcucci A. ; Strefler J. ; Vuuren D.P.V.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2 起始页码: 203
结束页码: 216
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Cost reduction
; Costs
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Abatement options
; Climate policy
; Exchange ratios
; Global climates
; Global temperature change
; Global warming potential
; Mitigation strategy
; Radiative forcings
; Climate models
; abatement cost
; air temperature
; climate change
; efficiency measurement
; environmental policy
; gas exchange
; global climate
; greenhouse gas
; methane
; mitigation
; radiative forcing
英文摘要: In climate policy, substitutions metrics are used to determine exchange ratios for different greenhouse gases as part of a multi-gas strategy. The suitability of the metric depends on the policy goals and considerations regarding its practical use. Here, we present a multi-model comparison study to look at the impact of different metrics on the mitigation strategies and global climate policy costs. The study looks into different Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP). The study shows that for all the models, varying between GWPs - from different IPCC reports, with different integration periods: 20 or 100 years - has a relatively small influence on policy costs (< 2.2 % spread across scenarios with a 2.8 W/m2 target) and climate outcomes. Metrics with a constant low substitution value for methane (effectively reducing its abatement), in contrast, lead to higher-cost mitigation pathways (with an average cost increase of 32.8 % in a 2.8 W/m2 scenario). If implemented efficiently, a time-varying GTP leads to a limited cost reduction compared to GWP. However, under imperfect foresight in combination with inertia of CH4 abatement options, or if implemented sub-optimally, time-varying GTP can result in higher costs than a 100-year GWP. At the same time, given a long-term radiative forcing target, a time-varying GTP results in slightly higher maximum global temperature change rates. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84313
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; Center of Economic Research, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Harmsen M.J.H.M.,van den Berg M.,Krey V.,et al. How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2)