DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0899-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966331143
论文题名: Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways
作者: Luderer G. ; Bertram C. ; Calvin K. ; De Cian E. ; Kriegler E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 1 起始页码: 127
结束页码: 140
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Costs
; Depreciation
; Electric utilities
; Emission control
; Gas emissions
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Industrial emissions
; Investments
; Stabilization
; Climate stabilization
; Economic impacts
; Emission reduction
; Global integrated assessments
; International community
; Mitigation costs
; Pre-industrial levels
; Transformation pathways
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; concentration (composition)
; emission control
; emissions trading
; environmental assessment
; environmental policy
; feasibility study
; global climate
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; international organization
; mitigation
; policy implementation
; stabilization
英文摘要: While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2 °C. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the long-term mitigation target with global cooperative action. We find that after a deferral of ambitious action the 450 ppm CO2e is only achievable with a radical up-scaling of efforts after target adoption. This has severe effects on transformation pathways and exacerbates the challenges of climate stabilization, in particular for a delay of cooperative action until 2030. Specifically, reaching the target with weak near-term action implies (a) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems in the medium term, (b) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, (c) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices and (d) stronger transitional economic impacts, rendering the political feasibility of such pathways questionable. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84316
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Joint Global Change Research Institute/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Luderer G.,Bertram C.,Calvin K.,et al. Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(1)