DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1668-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964389811
论文题名: Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?: Overview of the RoSE multi-model study
作者: Kriegler E. ; Mouratiadou I. ; Luderer G. ; Bauer N. ; Brecha R.J. ; Calvin K. ; De Cian E. ; Edmonds J. ; Jiang K. ; Tavoni M. ; Edenhofer O.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 1 起始页码: 7
结束页码: 22
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Climate change
; Economics
; Emission control
; Fossil fuels
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Base-line assumptions
; Climate change mitigation
; Climate mitigations
; Climate stabilization
; Energy and emissions
; Greenhouse gas emission reduction
; Integrated assessment models
; Sensitive features
; Climate models
; climate change
; ecological economics
; economic growth
; emission inventory
; fossil fuel
; greenhouse gas
; mitigation
; reduction
; resource availability
; resource scarcity
; stabilization
; transformation
英文摘要: We investigate the extent to which future energy transformation pathways meeting ambitious climate change mitigation targets depend on assumptions about economic growth and fossil fuel availability. The analysis synthesizes results from the RoSE multi-model study aiming to identify robust and sensitive features of mitigation pathways under these inherently uncertain drivers of energy and emissions developments. Based on an integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we show that economic growth and fossil resource assumptions substantially affect baseline developments, but in no case they lead to the significant greenhouse gas emission reduction that would be needed to achieve long-term climate targets without dedicated climate policy. The influence of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions on climate mitigation pathways is relatively small due to overriding requirements imposed by long-term climate targets. While baseline assumptions can have substantial effects on mitigation costs and carbon prices, we find that the effects of model differences and the stringency of the climate target are larger compared to that of baseline assumptions. We conclude that inherent uncertainties about socio-economic determinants like economic growth and fossil resource availability can be effectively dealt with in the assessment of mitigation pathways. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84321
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; University of Dayton, Dayton, OH, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Euro-Mediterranen Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan, Italy; Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China; Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Kriegler E.,Mouratiadou I.,Luderer G.,et al. Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?: Overview of the RoSE multi-model study[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(1)