DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1597-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84954323148
论文题名: The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh
作者: Kirby J.M. ; Mainuddin M. ; Mpelasoka F. ; Ahmad M.D. ; Palash W. ; Quadir M.E. ; Shah-Newaz S.M. ; Hossain M.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 481
结束页码: 491
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Groundwater
; Irrigation
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Runoff
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water supply
; Climate change projections
; Irrigation development
; Irrigation water use
; Model sensitivity
; Model uncertainties
; Northwest regions
; Regional water balance
; Water availability
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; evapotranspiration
; future prospect
; groundwater
; model test
; rainfall
; runoff
; surface water
; water availability
; water budget
; water planning
; water use
; Bangladesh
英文摘要: The probable effect of climate change on the water available for use in Bangladesh is not well known. We calculate monthly water balances for five main regions of Bangladesh to examine the likely impacts of climate change to 2050. We also examine the impact of past and potential future irrigation development. Climate change projections for rainfall in Bangladesh are uncertain, with increased rain in the wet season likely, but decreased rain also possible. Runoff is projected to vary in a manner similar to rainfall. However, assuming no change to the area of crops, all projections result in increases in irrigation water use, which leads to groundwater level declines. The impact of change (whether climate change or development) on water availability and use is greater in the Northwest region than elsewhere. For most water balance terms in most regions, irrigation development (both historic and future) is calculated to have a larger impact than climate change. Climate change is calculated to have a larger impact than irrigation development only on evapotranspiration and runoff, and possibly on groundwater levels. Model sensitivity tests suggest that model uncertainty is less than climate change uncertainty. To reverse lowered groundwater levels, Bangladesh’s policy includes greater use of surface water. While we calculate groundwater levels will rise, the viability of the policy may be affected by future changes to upstream use. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84333
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, Australia; Department of Civil Engineering, International University of Business Agriculture and Technology Uttara, Dhaka, Bangladesh; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Boston, MA, United States; Institute of Water Modelling, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Recommended Citation:
Kirby J.M.,Mainuddin M.,Mpelasoka F.,et al. The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(2018-03-04)