globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961285748
论文题名:
Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration
作者: Trutnevyte E.; Guivarch C.; Lempert R.; Strachan N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 373
结束页码: 379
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Energy management ; Uncertainty analysis ; Energy analysis ; Focal points ; Multidimensional uncertainty ; Scenario studies ; Scenario technique ; Iterative methods ; climate change ; energy planning ; strategic approach ; theoretical study ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis. However, in the great majority of studies with a handful of scenarios or scenario categories, both scenario developers and users capture only a subset of future uncertainties. We propose three focal points for reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration: (1) to ensure that scenario developers embrace an increased space of multidimensional uncertainties, (2) to facilitate the process of scenario users capturing this space, and (3) to evaluate and iteratively revise the improvement progress. If these focal points are adopted, scenario studies in climate and energy analysis shall not simply stop after producing scenarios, but shall continue with techniques to facilitate elicitation of user-specific insights, as well as evaluation of both scenarios and scenario techniques. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84349
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Environmental Systems Science, USYS Transdisciplinarity Laboratory, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, United Kingdom; Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), 45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; École des Ponts ParisTech, Cité Descartes, 6–8 avenue Blaise Pascal, Champs-sur-Marne, France; Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Trutnevyte E.,Guivarch C.,Lempert R.,et al. Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(2018-03-04)
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