DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1587-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961173582
论文题名: Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat
作者: Junk J. ; Kouadio L. ; Delfosse P. ; El Jarroudi M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 439
结束页码: 451
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Electric power system interconnection
; Image resolution
; Climatic conditions
; Cropping seasons
; Field experiment
; Multi-model ensemble
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate models
; Regional climate projections
; Spatial resolution
; Climate change
; agrometeorology
; air temperature
; crop production
; field method
; regional climate
; relative humidity
; rust disease
; spatial resolution
; wheat
; Luxembourg [Benelux]
; Luxembourg [Luxembourg (NTN)]
; Puccinia triticina
; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Projected climate changes will affect wheat crop production both in the main processes of plant growth and development but also in the occurrences and severities of plant diseases. We assessed the potential infection periods of wheat leaf rust (WLR) at two climatologically different sites in Luxembourg. A threshold-based model, taking hourly values of air temperatures, relative humidity and precipitation during night-time into account, was used for calculating favourable WLR infection days during three periods throughout the cropping season. Field experiments were conducted during the 2003–2013 period at the selected sites. Projected climate data, from a multi model ensemble of regional climate models (spatial resolution 25 km) as well as an additional projection with a higher spatial resolution of 1.3 km, were used for investigating the potential WLR infection periods for two future time spans. Results showed that the infections of WLR were satisfactorily simulated during the development of wheat at both sites for the 2003–2013 period. The probabilities of WLR detection were close to 1 and the critical success index ranged from 0.80 to 0.94 (perfect score = 1 for both). Moreover, the highest proportions of favourable days of WLR infection were simulated during spring and summer at both sites. Regional climate projections showed an increase in temperatures by 1.6 K for 2041–2050 and by 3.7 K for 2091–2100 compared to the reference period 1991–2000. Positive trends in favourable WLR infection conditions occur at both sites more conducive than in the reference period due to projected climatic conditions. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84351
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Remote Sensing and Eco-hydrological Modelling, Environmental Research and Innovation (ERIN), Luxembourg Institute of Science & Technology (LIST), 41, Rue du Brill, Belvaux, Luxembourg; International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, West Street, Toowoomba, Australia; Department of Environmental Sciences and Management, University of Liege, Arlon Campus Environnement, 185 Avenue de Longwy, Arlon, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Junk J.,Kouadio L.,Delfosse P.,et al. Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(2018-03-04)