DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1575-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84954433538
论文题名: Rainfall in Iberian transnational basins: a drier future for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana?
作者: Guerreiro S.B. ; Kilsby C.G. ; Fowler H.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 467
结束页码: 480
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Deforestation
; Rain
; Water resources
; Water supply
; Annual rainfall
; Downscaling methods
; Dry seasons
; Forest fires
; Iberian Peninsula
; Interannual variability
; Seasonal trends
; Water scarcity
; Climate models
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; dry season
; forest fire
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall
; water supply
; weather forecasting
; Douro Valley
; Iberian Peninsula
; Spain
; Tagus Valley
英文摘要: Water scarcity is critical in both Portugal and Spain; therefore, assessing future changes in rainfall for this region is vital. We analyse rainfall projections from climate models in the CMIP5 ensemble for the transnational basins of the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana with the aim of estimating future impacts on water resources. Two downscaling methods (change factor and a variation of empirical quantile mapping) and two ways of analysing future rainfall changes (differences between 30 years periods and trends in transient rainfall) are used. For the 2050s, most models project a reduction in rainfall for all months and for both methods, but there is significant spread between models. Almost all significant seasonal trends identified from 1961 to 2100 are negative. For annual rainfall, only 3 (2) models show no significant trends for the Douro/Tagus (Guadiana), while the rest show negative trends up to −6 % per decade. Reductions in rainfall are projected for spring and autumn by almost all models, both downscaling methods and both ways of analysing changes. This increases the confidence in the projection of the lengthening of the dry season which could have serious impacts for agriculture, water supply and forest fires in the region. A considerable part of the climate model disagreement in the projection of future rainfall changes for the 2050s is shown to be due to the use of 30 year intervals, leading to the conclusion that such intervals are too short to be used under conditions of high inter-annual variability as found in the Iberian Peninsula. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84352
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Guerreiro S.B.,Kilsby C.G.,Fowler H.J.. Rainfall in Iberian transnational basins: a drier future for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana?[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(2018-03-04)