globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1576-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961167029
论文题名:
Extreme hot summers in China in the CMIP5 climate models
作者: Leng G.; Tang Q.; Huang S.; Zhang X.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 669
结束页码: 681
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Earth (planet) ; Climate system model ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Earth system model ; Global land surface ; Global-mean temperature ; Precipitation deficits ; Spatial structure ; Summer temperature ; Climate models ; arid region ; climate change ; climate modeling ; drought ; high temperature ; land surface ; regional climate ; regional pattern ; summer ; threshold ; weather forecasting ; China
英文摘要: Given the severe impacts of hot summers on human and natural systems, we attempt to quantify future changes in extreme hot summer frequency in China using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. Unlike previous studies focusing on fixed future time slices, we investigate the changes as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Analyses show that extreme hot summers (June-July-August mean temperature higher than 90 % quantile of 1971–2000 climatology) are projected to occur at least 80 % of the time across China with a GMT rise of 2 °C. The fraction of land area with extreme hot summers becoming the norm (median of future summer temperatures exceed the extreme) will increase from ~15 % with 0.5 °C of GMT rise to ~97 % with 2.5 °C GMT rise, which is much greater than for the global land surface as a whole. A distinct spatial pattern of the GMT rise threshold over which the local extreme hot summer first becomes the norm is revealed. When averaged over the country, the GMT rise threshold is 0.96 °C. Earth system models exhibit comparable results to climate system models, but with a relatively larger spread. Further analysis shows that the concurrence of hot and dry summers will increase significantly with the spatial structure of responses depending on the definition of drying. The increase of concurrent hot and dry conditions will induce potential droughts which would be more severe than those induced by only precipitation deficits. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84354
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Leng G.,Tang Q.,Huang S.,et al. Extreme hot summers in China in the CMIP5 climate models[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(2018-03-04)
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