DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1607-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961285957
论文题名: Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs
作者: Garner G. ; Reed P. ; Keller K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 4 起始页码: 713
结束页码: 723
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Climate change risks
; Explicit representation
; Integrated assessment models
; Potentially conflicting preferences
; Risk management strategies
; Stakeholder groups
; Temperature stabilization
; Trade-off analysis
; Economic and social effects
; abatement cost
; climate change
; climate effect
; environmental economics
; environmental policy
; global perspective
; management practice
; risk assessment
; stakeholder
; sustainable development
; trade-off
英文摘要: Strategies for managing climate-change risks impact diverse stakeholder groups that possess potentially conflicting preferences. Basic physics and economics suggest that reconciling all of these preference conflicts may not be possible. Moreover, different climate risk management strategies can yield diverse and potentially severe impacts across different global stakeholders. These preference conflicts and their uncertain impacts require an explicit understanding of the trade-offs that emerge across different risk management strategies. Traditionally, integrated assessment models (IAMs) typically aggregate the stakeholders’ preferences across the entire globe into a single, a priori defined utility function. This framing hides climate risk management trade-offs as well as the inherent stakeholder compromises implicit to the resulting single “optimal” expected utility solution. Here, we analyze a simple IAM to quantify and visualize the multidimensional trade-offs among four objectives representing global concerns: (i) global economic productivity, (ii) reliable temperature stabilization, (iii) climate damages, and (iv) abatement costs. We quantify and visualize the trade-offs across these objectives and demonstrate how a traditional optimal expected utility policy implicitly eliminates many relevant policy pathways. Explicit trade-off analysis provides a richer context for exploring conflicting global policy preferences and clarifies the implications of alternative climate risk mitigation policies to better inform negotiated compromises. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84387
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Garner G.,Reed P.,Keller K.. Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(4)