DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1550-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84958770616
论文题名: Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources
作者: Nash D.J. ; Pribyl K. ; Klein J. ; Neukom R. ; Endfield G.H. ; Adamson G.C.D. ; Kniveton D.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 4 起始页码: 605
结束页码: 619
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Nickel
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Documentary sources
; Long term change
; Modulating effect
; Rainfall variability
; Seasonal rainfall
; Summer precipitation
; Summer rainfall
; Term importance
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; annual variation
; documentary source
; drought
; El Nino
; La Nina
; long-term change
; nineteenth century
; paleoclimate
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; reconstruction
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; KwaZulu-Natal
; South Africa
英文摘要: Analyses of historical patterns of rainfall variability are essential for understanding long-term changes in precipitation timing and distribution. Focussing on former Natal and Zululand (now KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa), this study presents the first combined annual and seasonal reconstruction of rainfall variability over southeast Africa for the 19th century. Analyses of documentary sources, including newspapers and colonial and missionary materials, indicate that the region was affected by severe or multi-year drought on eight occasions between 1836 and 1900 (the rainy seasons of 1836–38, 1861–63, 1865–66, 1868–70, 1876–79, 1883–85, 1886–90 and 1895–1900). Six severe or multi-year wet periods are also identified (1847–49, 1854–57, 1863–65, 1879–81, 1890–91 and 1892–94). The timing of these events agrees well with independent reconstructions of 19th century rainfall for other parts of the southern African summer rainfall zone (SRZ), suggesting subcontinental scale variability. Our results indicate that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall in southeast Africa was relatively stable, at least for the latter half of the 19th century. El Niño conditions appear to have had a more consistent modulating effect upon rainfall during the 19th century than La Niña. The rainfall chronology from this study is combined with other annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from mainland southern Africa and surrounding oceans as part of a multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction for the SRZ. This reconstruction confirms (i) the long-term importance of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTs for modulating regional rainfall; and (ii) that summer precipitation has been declining progressively over the last 200 years. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84396
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Environment and Technology, University of Brighton, Lewes Road, Brighton, United Kingdom; School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3, Wits, South Africa; Department of Social Sciences, Hedmark University College, Hamar, Norway; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; School of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, King’s College London, Strand, London, United Kingdom; School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Nash D.J.,Pribyl K.,Klein J.,et al. Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(4)