DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1553-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84958745616
论文题名: Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA
作者: West A.M. ; Kumar S. ; Jarnevich C.S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 4 起始页码: 565
结束页码: 577
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Fires
; Regional planning
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Climate change scenarios
; Climate suitability
; Geo-spatial analysis
; Global circulation model
; Historical models
; Multivariate adaptive regression splines
; Spatial resolution
; Wildfire modeling
; Climate change
; climate change
; environmental modeling
; future prospect
; land management
; landscape planning
; regional climate
; relative humidity
; seasonal variation
; spatial distribution
; spatial resolution
; topography
; wildfire
; Colorado
; United States
; Wyoming
英文摘要: Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado and Wyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84407
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management, Colorado State University, 2150 Centre Ave Bldg. C, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, 2150 Centre Ave Bldg. C, Fort Collins, CO, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Ave Bldg. C, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
West A.M.,Kumar S.,Jarnevich C.S.. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(4)