DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959197189
论文题名: Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact
作者: Arnell N.W. ; Brown S. ; Gosling S.N. ; Hinkel J. ; Huntingford C. ; Lloyd-Hughes B. ; Lowe J.A. ; Osborn T. ; Nicholls R.J. ; Zelazowski P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 3 起始页码: 475
结束页码: 487
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Public policy
; Sea level
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Global mean surface temperature
; Global-mean temperature
; Impact assessments
; Non-linear relationships
; Policy implications
; Precipitation change
; Sea-level rise scenarios
; Temperature changes
; Climate change
英文摘要: Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84410
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom; Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, Met Office Hadley Centre, University of Reading, Exeter, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Arnell N.W.,Brown S.,Gosling S.N.,et al. Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(3)