DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1514-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951569831
论文题名: Sensitivity of freshwaters to browning in response to future climate change
作者: Weyhenmeyer G.A. ; Müller R.A. ; Norman M. ; Tranvik L.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 225
结束页码: 239
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity
; Climate models
; Lakes
; Potable water
; Water
; Water quality
; Water resources
; Biogeochemical process
; Climate scenarios
; Fish production
; Homogenous precipitation
; Interannual variation
; Landscape waters
; Spatial variations
; Temporal scale
; Climate change
; absorbance
; climate change
; drinking water
; flushing
; future prospect
; headwater
; lake
; land cover
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; sensitivity analysis
; spatial variation
; water retention
英文摘要: Many boreal waters are currently becoming browner with effects on biodiversity, fish production, biogeochemical processes and drinking water quality. The question arises whether and at which speed this browning will continue under future climate change. To answer the question we predicted the absorbance (a420) in 6347 lakes and streams of the boreal region under future climate change. For the prediction we modified a numerical model for a420 spatial variation which we tested on a temporal scale by simulating a420 inter-annual variation in 48 out of the 6347 Swedish waters. We observed that inter-annual a420 variation is strongly driven by precipitation that controls the water flushing through the landscape. Using the predicted worst case climate scenario for Sweden until 2030, i.e., a 32 % precipitation increase, and assuming a 10 % increase in imports of colored substances into headwaters but no change in land-cover, we predict that a420 in the 6347 lakes and streams will, in the worst case, increase by factors between 1.1 and 7.6 with a median of 1.3. This increase implies that a420 will rise from the present 0.1–86 m−1 (median: 7.3 m−1) in the 6347 waters to 0.1–154 m−1 (median: 10.1 m−1), which can cause problems for the preparation of drinking water in a variety of waters. Our model approach clearly demonstrates that a homogenous precipitation increase results in very heterogeneous a420 changes, where lakes with a long-term mean landscape water retention time between 1 and 3 years are particularly vulnerable to climate change induced browning. Since these lake types are quite often used as drinking water resources, preparedness is needed for such waters. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84431
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Ecology and Genetics/Limnology, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18D, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Earth Sciences, Air- and Water Science, Uppsala University, Villavägen, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Weyhenmeyer G.A.,Müller R.A.,Norman M.,et al. Sensitivity of freshwaters to browning in response to future climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(2018-01-02)