DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947869359
论文题名: Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley
作者: Mera R. ; Massey N. ; Rupp D.E. ; Mote P. ; Allen M. ; Frumhoff P.C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期: 3 起始页码: 427
结束页码: 438
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Health risks
; Ionization of gases
; Public risks
; Climate justices
; Extreme weather events
; Farm workers
; Human activities
; Nighttime temperatures
; Regional model
; Summer heat
; Super ensembles
; Climate change
; climate change
; environmental justice
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; human activity
; humidity
; probability
; quantitative analysis
; risk assessment
; weather
; California
; California Valley
; United States
英文摘要: Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) is an important tool for assessing the contribution of climate change to extreme weather events. Here, PEA is applied to explore the climate attribution of recent extreme heat events in California’s Central Valley. Heat waves have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, which increases the health risks of exposed communities, especially Latino farmworkers and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Using a superensemble of simulations with the Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM3P), we find that (1) simulations of the hottest summer days during the 2000s were twice as likely to occur using observed levels of greenhouse gases than in a counterfactual world without major human activities, suggesting a strong relationship between heat extremes and the increase in human emissions of greenhouse gases, (2) detrimental impacts of heat on public health-relevant variables, such as the number of days above 40 °C, can be quantified and attributed to human activities using PEA, and (3) PEA can serve as a tool for addressing climate justice concerns of populations within developed nations who are disproportionately exposed to climate risks. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84437
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Union of Concerned Scientists, 1825 K Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC, United States; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom; Union of Concerned Scientists, 2 Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mera R.,Massey N.,Rupp D.E.,et al. Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(3)